Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
